The All-In Crystal Ball
The Mag 7 were holding the stock market on their shoulders.
Now, that group has cracked and the market is in a free fall.
If you’ve been listening to All-In, you saw this coming.
Let’s walk through it:
1) Berkshire Sours on Apple: Chamath’s Analysis of Buffett’s Annual Letter
Chamath on March 8th: “You can tell when (Warren) Buffett has gotten disengaged with a company based on the number of times he mentions it in his annual letter.”
“I think this ‘Buffett Index’ is a really important one for Apple, which is, it went from a forever holding to barely getting mentioned.”
“Unfortunately, it speaks for a very bad next 5-10 years for this company unless they figure something out.”
2) The AI Bubble: Massive Spend with No Revenue = Recipe for Disaster
Chamath on May 31st: “If you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26B/quarter, the market cap of Nvidia is not what the market cap of Nvidia should be.”
“And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money.”
“Where are all these newfangled things that we’re supposed to see that justifies the $100B of chips spend/year, $200B of energy spend, $100B of all this other stuff?”
“And we’ve seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic somebody’s voice. It doesn’t all hang together yet.”
3) The Underlying Recession: The Mag 7 Shielded the Market from a Bad Economy… Until They Didn’t
Chamath on July 12th: “I think the bigger question, though, is if we are on the verge of a real contraction in the economy.”
“Even though the stock market for seven companies is hitting all-time highs, the stock market for every other company that isn’t those seven companies have not.”
“People are unemployed, there is no money, and the question is whether you have some sort of contraction economically that is measured by a recession or not.”
“People have been tracking the S&P 500 Index versus the equal-weighted index.”
“And what’s interesting is the spread right now is the most extreme since March of 2000 right before dot-com crash”
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28 Comments
Prophet 😊
Your kidding…questioning whether we are crashing or not. No soft landing. Real contraction?? Obviously
Warren once again on top of the market.
This is so funny! As soon as I saw the headline half his holdings in apple. I immediately my first inkling. My first thought was when Chamath said this on the podcast lol
Should I sell some or wait it out?
Apple is still up more than 20 percent since the prediction was made.
I’d love to understand his analysis further. I’ve been slow to replace iPhone, however Apple intelligence has me interested. You’d think good sales incoming. Maybe he lacks confidence in their ability to continue development, and fears replacement.
Buffett should be the next Fed Chairman
He’s a genius
I’ve said this for a long time – Chamath has a significant short position on Apple and takes any opportunity he can to speak poorly of Apple and positively of Microsoft in order to improve his scuffed position
12 months ago All In podcast was all about how AI would certainly change everything shortly and how those 7 companies could not miss the train… I wanna do the hinsight 2020 podcast too
Nostrachamath
Chamathdamus!
MOOON
TRUMP USA 🇺🇸 TRUMP USA 🇺🇸 TRUMP USA 🇺🇸 TRUMP
This was a pretty good prediction.
Chamath totally nailed this one. Must give credit
He's wrong more than he's right that fella, he just talks a lot
People have jobs what are you talking about
we are already in recession, high inflation, mandatory office presence (more costs for employees) and lay offs, mixed with salary stagnation = to less spending and economy cool down
A bit of a snake. You can tell by how he hisses.
compute and energy cost going to zero – chamath
Rich guy but give bullshit talks and cheats
Economy vs market cap to GDP are two completely different matrix
Am i wrong?
Recession
The number of times chamath has got things absolutely wrong is really impressive lol
I was watching this man telling us 2 years a go that the rising in the market is due to short covering and not momentum and then the market went the all time highs.! Now he is telling the market it's gonna crash.
Apple will make AI palatable to the masses. Buffett is managing his portfolio. Judging by this guy's taste in presidential candidates, I'll continue to hold my AAPL.
Indeed.