The Real Risk for Markets Isn’t Tariffs: It’s Japan! | Michael Gayed

Is Wall Street ignoring the true risk in markets? Michael Gayed joins Maggie Lake to explain why investors are watching the wrong risk signals by focusing on Trump’s tariffs and why small caps, Japan, and junk debt may hold the real clues to what happens next.

In this in-depth conversation, Michael breaks down:
– Why small caps are halfway through a lost decade
– How Japan’s monetary policy and the reverse carry trade could trigger a global credit event
– The dangerous disconnect between small caps and junk debt spreads
– Why passive flows into mega-cap stocks are masking real economic weakness
– How a bullish or bearish tail event could resolve these market distortions
– And why gold may not behave like a safe haven in the next crisis

Chapters:
0:32 – Tariff Tensions: Growth Under Pressure?
4:23 – Zombie Small Caps: Crisis or Transformation?
6:57 – Mega Tech Mirage: The Illusion of Market Health
9:25 – Reverse Carry Unveiled: Japan’s Financial Tipping Point
14:35 – Trump’s Dollar Dilemma: The Weaker Wish
16:02 – Unwinding Uncertainty: What Could Spark A Japan Panic?
20:59 – Gold Sell-Off: Unveiling the Warning
24:05 – Economic Signals: Growth or Gloom in the US?
27:25 – Deregulation Dilemma: Positioning for Change
29:47 – Oil Outlook: Balancing Supply, Demand, and Risk
30:56 – Equity Rotation: Shifting from Mega Caps
33:11 – Small Cap Timing: Seizing the Opportunity
35:26 – Global Pivot: Betting on International Markets
36:20 – Conviction Check: What Would Change the Game?

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40 Comments

  1. This guy's been saying this for decades. He got so pumped up last August but then the markets ripped to ATHs a few months later. Dude must really hate sushi rn lol 🍣 🍣 🍣

  2. Trump: "Were gonna tariff this"

    Average American Brain: I don't know what Tariffs are, BUT THEY SOUND GREAT!

    Google: I've been in your pocket for 12 years and you never fucking use me, unless its for porn.

  3. 32:25min the Circle of life: How to crash stocks to save bonds(small caps): you need a Recession, Stock market crash, Tail winds to force the flight to safety into treasury bonds, to force yields lower; which saves small caps after refinancing, rates not higher for longer, solves the refinancing issue(moment of fear)! Small caps come back to life! Interesting

  4. Greu un sondaj angajează cam o sută sy vă dau de muncă zy sy noapte yncontyu crezy ca glumesc yok am făcut tentei zona nr unu turlka acum synt ff dyferyt erau zero sy economul sy macro famylyal sau zonal vă dau rymp de gudure treze cu zyle ce zyce el e ales de lipsa bobo care să conducă văd vă las rymp destul😮😊

  5. Sory nu ynteleg limba vostra dar un economia globală sy actuală nu e e ușor nu uita totu costa bany sau trol sau monede dyferyt e sau marfă combustybyly dyferyt aveți rymp de gudure trezești zyle OK😮😊

  6. Dacă nu crezy veryfyka bursa ystanbul nu sunt decurs un trecător un rymp sparți sy altceva m-au dispar ce oftez habar nu am e stanță ff veke😮

  7. This guy investing in treasures is a sign he's overthinking in cloud 9. Also, the smiles and sarcastic comments and faces are too much.

  8. Maggie,

    Please interview real investment advisors or economists such as Rosenberg, Fleckenstein, Peter Schiff, Ted Okley, Chris Vermuelin. Garreth Soloway and not marketing guy like this moron!

  9. To move car production take many years ! What drive growth is the trading that happens today !
    Production in USA cost more than production in some other countries so products from USA will be more expensive
    , both those with tariffs and those from USA ! Higher prices hurt growth

  10. Japan is related to the tariffs problem in that a lot of money flowing into US financial assets originates from Japan's export earnings in the US.
    If tariffs significantly reduce those exports earnings (which they will), there will be knock on effects for the US via reduced demand for US stocks and bonds. That in turn will spark a rotation into safety i.e. commodities (especially gold).

  11. 42% of Russell 2000 stocks have negative earnings. Why does nobody point that out? I would point out that not only has the Russell gone nowhere for 4 years while investors assume all the risk for zero reward, but also billions in passive money flows from pension funds and retirement accounts into the Russell with no regard for company profitability? Meanwhile, retiree risk complacency is completely absent with retiree equity allocations at a record 80%.

  12. Every time I see another video about the market crashing, I feel like a king because I’m always in profit with Moonacy Protocol. You won’t find APRs like this anywhere else!

  13. At least half of the Russell is made up of zombie companies. The NASDAQ is in a massive bubble (values are way blown out). THERE IS A REASON I AM 3 TIMES LEVERAGED both the Russell and NASDAQ.

  14. Gold backs the American banking system, started to rise in 2015 on its long march to balance the debt after the debt binge.
    Has about 10 years of continuing rises left to back the debts

  15. No I don't think cherish has anything to do with it I think it's the Democrats trying to sabotage the grand plan Trump has and I believe he has something and they won't even give it a 6-month chance they won't even give it a 5-second chance and that's what's going to screw America all them Sad Sack Democrats screwing up America on purpose