中国経済にのしかかる不良債権問題。アメリカを追い抜くと言われた中国経済世界一位の夢は幻に終わる可能性が高まっている。アメリカ、インドの経済発展についても解説

中国経済にのしかかる不良債権問題。アメリカを追い抜くと言われた中国経済世界一位の夢は幻に終わる可能性が高まっている。アメリカ、インドの経済発展についても解説

Hello everyone. This is Karu Kamigawa. The topic I would like to discuss this time is how the goal of China’s economy overtaking that of the United States is about to end up being a pipe dream.

I have often seen predictions that the Chinese economy will continue to develop and eventually overtake the American economy and become the world’s largest economic power . For example , it was not uncommon for economic and financial analysts to announce predictions that China’s GDP would overtake that of the United States by early 2030

. However, if you look at the situation from your own eyes and see how badly the Chinese economy is doing, you will realize that such stories are now becoming a thing of the past. Actually, I think that story is completely true. In the past, some Western organizations

Have announced that the Chinese economy will overtake the US as early as 2030, and that the US economy will overtake the US by the 2040s at the latest. There are many reports saying that China will overtake Japan . However, given the current situation, such talk seems to be completely beside the point.

It is true that China’s economy has continued to develop and its GDP has continued to grow. However, the reason for continued growth is gradually being lost, and on the other hand, the United States is trying to further accelerate its economic growth.

First of all, regarding the fact that China’s development growth has slowed down. As I have explained in several videos on this channel, in order to dramatically increase domestic consumption, China especially encourages things like real estate investment . We have continued to succeed in creating the illusion that people can become wealthy .

A property you bought for 50 million yen will be worth 70 million yen next year. After that, it will reach 100 million yen. If we assume that prices will rise in this way, then even if we borrow 50 million yen, we will make a profit anyway, so why

Would there be any hesitation in borrowing 50 million yen? It doesn’t matter if you buy one, two, three, or four. The more investment properties you have, the better. Even if you have a lot of debt, if that debt creates wealth, you can accumulate more money even if you borrow more.

As a result, everyone was able to increase their consumption activities. However, it is now becoming clear that such a situation is typical of a bubble economy and cannot be sustained forever. Even though many real estate development companies are on the verge of bankruptcy, the

Chinese government is unable to resolve them as zombie companies because they are so large that the economic impact would be too great if they were to go bankrupt all at once. It is supposed to happen. The so-called huge non-performing loan problem is weighing heavily on the current Chinese economy.

Even if you borrow money to buy real estate, you can no longer expect a profit from the increase in the value of the loan, and if you have to pay back the entire amount you borrowed, it is a completely different behavior than before. So it becomes.

When people who have been mired in debt in this way come back to their senses, the scale of their consumption activities will change slightly from before. As the years have passed, the salary level of each worker has increased, and even with regard to the population, which had been advantageous for China until now

, it has become impossible to function as a country that supplies cheap labor that has functioned as the world’s factory. I did. Similarly, as the years pass, age groups also change. In China as well, issues such as a declining birthrate and aging population are occurring, and

Although the one-child policy that had been in place for a long time is no longer in place, the number of birthrates is decreasing to such an extent that one wonders if such a policy is still in place. ification has begun to progress.

Unless we spend an enormous amount of money on education for the small number of children we have, we will not be able to compete. That’s why more and more people are starting to shy away from that kind of lifestyle, and

More and more people are choosing not to have children even if they get married. If the aging of the population progresses as a whole, the number of workers, which was a weapon until now, will also decrease, so

The weapon that was useful for the development of the Chinese economy will be lost. That’s why I’m going. In addition to understanding the circumstances of a single country, this channel also talks about international situations several times. If you have some basic knowledge about changes in the international situation, you

Will be able to gain a slightly better understanding of global economic trends. Now, what will happen to the economic conditions of other countries in a world where China is no longer the world’s factory? The topic of which countries will grow in terms of global economic development is always of interest to many people.

Especially in 2024, with the launch of the new NISA, many people are starting to study to invest. I’m sure you’ve heard many stories about how America is good for such people. At the same time, are there any other countries other than the United States to invest in?

There are many people who are interested in this. India is a country that is attracting attention for such people. The reason why India is attracting so much attention is that, just like when we talked about the Chinese economy, there are a lot of people in India,

And many of those people still have low wages. So, there is a good chance that these people will be able to work with the factory workers of the world, and India also wants to accept foreign capital and employ these people. When these poor people go through stages and increase their income,

Personal consumption will grow, and this will be a place where many companies can play an active role. As for the overall structure, if GDP grows, countries around the world will pay more attention to India, and investment in India will become more active, and

Along with that, the total value of the stock market will also grow. That’s why it’s bad. For this reason, there are many people who want to start investing in stocks and those who want to invest in stocks in the Indian market.

In this way, China’s economic growth is now in a situation where it appears to be in jeopardy, and while I think India is growing, what about the United States? It is showing the movement. Up until now, when talking about the American market, we have often focused on

Big tech, companies called GAFAM, or companies with top market capitalization on the NASDAQ, but we also have a look at their lineup. Things are gradually changing. In particular, NVIDIA has been attracting a lot of attention lately. NVIDIA is not well known in Japan, but it is a very famous company worldwide.

The reason it is so famous is because semiconductors are extremely important in data processing, such as generative AI, and NVIDIA is the main company that makes these products. NVIDIA itself designs the products, and the companies that contract them out make them, but

NVIDIA’s GPUs are number one in terms of global market share, and many people like this company’s products. It’s growing. Of course, by combining AI in various services, not just NVIDIA, more powerful business models are about to emerge from American companies. For example, Microsoft has become famous because it is trying to incorporate

Chat GPT, which has become very famous as a generative AI, into its own services. Microsoft itself has been famous as a company for operating systems and office software such as Word, Excel, and PowerPoint since Windows 95 in 1995, but

Since then it has been revived by expanding into the data center business and the game industry. And this time, by teaming up with generative AI, we are once again trying to achieve great growth. Furthermore, the generative AI industry is still evolving, and American companies are considered to be very promising.

For example, until now, Google’s services have been extremely powerful in the Internet world, so its listed company Alphabet was a very promising company to invest in. However, once generative AI comes out, many people may stop searching, so Google has declared a state of emergency called the “Red Code.”

Up until now, when people wanted to know something, they would either type into a search box or use voice chat to type something like “I want to find out about so-and-so.” However, when generation AI is installed as a standard function,

There is no need to search in the first place, and when you ask “What’s going on about so-and-so ? ” This indicates that behavior such as flying to the ground may disappear once. However, Google itself was originally focused on researching AI, and

In this field as well, they have begun offering the AI ​​they have developed in an effort to once again maintain a high market share . In addition, in the birth of this kind of generative AI, Microsoft has been able to attack from the office software side, but

On the other hand, there is another area that is attracting attention, such as image generation. Adobe is believed to have the strength to deal with this issue. Adobe doesn’t get much attention, but it is the world’s largest manufacturer of video processing software, including Photoshop, and American

Companies are applying new technology in a variety of ways. We are trying to develop it further. Given such high expectations, indicators that represent the American market, such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ , can be said to be performing extremely well. Of course, there are problems in the American economy.

In any era, at some point , everyone becomes aware that the stock price rise caused by people’s excessive expectations does not hold up when compared with profitability. , which can cause a huge uproar.

Especially in the case of NVIDIA, which supplies a large amount of semiconductors and has a high market share in the field of generative AI, its stock price has been rising rapidly, so we will have to wait until later to determine what is the appropriate stage. I do not understand.

However, on the one hand, the United States has developed new eyes to the extent that it is thought that such a bubble may occur, and on the other hand, on the other hand, Japan

Is now beginning to face the enormous problem of non-performing loans, which was the reason for stagnation if things continued as they were. I think it’s pretty clear which country will experience greater economic growth. Also, as I mentioned earlier, the fact that India is now trying to take full advantage

Of the reasons why China’s economy has grown is also a big factor. While China’s economy has plateaued, India, which is the same reason why China’s economy has grown, is turning into China , with many young people, working for low wages, and trying to accept more and more foreign investment.

, the economy will grow from now on. However, America, a developed country, is trying to achieve further development based on new business models. It can be said that the contrast between the United States and China is extremely large.

The days when predictions were made that the Chinese economy would eventually overtake that of the United States may become a distant memory in a few years, and people will say, “Oh, there was a time when people used to say things like that.” I think there is enough sex. Therefore, this time

I have explained that the dream that China once had of overtaking the American economy is now a thing of the past given the current situation . What did you think when you heard this story? Please feel free to comment. Please note that just because you think the Indian economy is growing,

Do not invest 100% of your money in Indian stocks . The Indian market is still in the developing stage, so Japanese people cannot buy individual stocks directly, and even if you invest in active funds, the fees are high. I think the US is my favorite, or while looking at which country will grow,

I put more weight on stocks around the world, and only buy Indian investment trusts to the extent that I want to have some fun . I think it’s just fine. Well, I personally like high dividend stocks or ETFs with continuous dividend increases, so I think Indian stocks are a bit risky.

So, that’s all for now. Thank you for watching until the end. If you haven’t subscribed to the channel, please do so. After watching the video, please click the rating button and leave a comment with your thoughts. On this channel, I will explain various movements in the world and

Talk about things that will help you organize your knowledge. See you again in the next video. See you again!

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